The Afghan morass

Ilyas M. Mohsin The Afghan Spring is repeating the history of Afghanistan, whenever a foreign power has involved itself there. The US/ISAF forces have experienced many attacks from their opponents. The US administration, which is facing a difficult situation at home since the presidential elections are due in 2012, has been trying all tactics to make its citizens believe their claims. The US media, despite its commitment to uphold the official version, has found the unfolding events of the Afghan imbroglio pretty appealing. Sitting at this end and also suffering because of the loss of human lives in Pakistan and Afghanistan, I cannot help wondering how the USA appreciates the situation that is getting worse by the day - for its troops as well. The lack of regard shown to those dying in American misadventures may sell in the US, but not in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In fact, it is strongly believed that great damage to its goodwill in the region is being done by the killing of innocent people. This is more so in Afghanistan, where blood feuds at a personal level last for as long as a century; the end occurs only when either the aggrieved party could kill the aggressor in revenge or a settlement is arranged by the accused seeking forgiveness from the aggrieved party. This has remained an article of faith with the tribals/people in Afghanistan and Pakistans FATA. And it is a fact that such traditions are followed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. Of late, the Taliban have come out strongly through statements claiming that the attacks on Afghanistan post-9/11 were premeditated and part of the great game. Their emphasis was on the fact that they were not supporting Osama bin Laden (OBL). In 2001, the Taliban regime had offered to handover OBL to a UN Commission to face charges provided the Bush administration shared with them admissible evidence that would establish the charge. Bush refused to provide the evidence and, for reasons of his own, jumped the gun and made sure that the regime was made to quit forcibly after they had put up quite a fight. True to the Afghan history, the group vanished into the mountains after facing defeat, but re-emerged when their enemies started fumbling and have been waging a war against the occupation forces, with a varying tempo and frequency of attacks. The American deaths maybe in a smaller numbers, but there are reports of really a large number of coalition soldiers, particularly of the US, suffering from serious injuries and psychological problems. Those who have committed suicide in the last 10 years are staggering high in number, considering suicides in similar wars and in the course of life. . A report by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies had warned: Public fear and frustration are on the rise in Afghanistan.Dramatic changes are required in the coming weeks.. Unfortunately, the US administration could not do much to win the hearts and minds of the Afghans; in fact since 2007, the US has been going downhill. More so, Professor Burhanuddin Rabbanis assassination in Kabul is a terrible setback for the peace process, which was launched by President Hamid Karzai at USAs insistence. It would sharply aggravate the ethnic divide, particularly in the north and south that would also have grave political consequences. President Obama has condemned the killing of Rabbani, who was heading the Afghan Peace Council to open talks with the Taliban for some sort of reconciliation. So the trust deficit on both sides will complicate the situation for the US forces, which are already under tremendous strain. At the same time, officials in Washington have been blowing hot and cold with Pakistan, which is revealed from the statements of Admiral Mike Mullen and Secretary Defence Leon Panetta followed by Hillary Clintons. The US administration must understand that its goodwill in Afghanistan has reached an awfully low level; the conquest of the war-torn country has remained a dream that will never come true. Pakistan, with all its debatable aspects, remains the only bet through which the US can cut its losses. Besides, Washington has been trying to project the Indian factor into this quagmire, which is nothing but daydreaming. The US has already been fighting for the last 10 years in Afghanistan, yet it is groping in the dark. Considering its strategic interests, it would be difficult for Washington to repeat the Vietnam experience of pulling out all of a sudden. Besides dealing with home politics, the US has to work out equitable arrangements with all the principal actors. Short of that, it would appear to be like gambling on bogus coins. The writer is a former secretary interior Email: imnor@brain.net.pk

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