Recently, Israel has intensified its strategic manoeuvres against Iran, a situation often mistakenly seen as merely an extension of Israel’s ongoing conflict with Hamas in Gaza. However, this oversimplification overlooks the more intricate dynamics at play. Hamas’s political objectives and Iran’s broader geopolitical ambitions have aligned them on a shared platform against Israel, reflecting a deeper, more complex conflict. The roots of this situation extend far beyond the immediate tensions in Gaza, highlighting the consequences of decades of ineffective U.S. foreign policy. This failure has enabled Iran to emerge as a dominant regional power, acting with increasing boldness and little restraint.

The United States, once the unrivalled power in the Middle East, has seen its influence wane significantly over the past decade. This decline is most evident in Washington’s inability to counter Iran’s growing regional influence effectively. Since 2010, Iran has expanded its reach, funding and arming proxy groups across the Middle East, creating a network of militias and political entities that challenge U.S. interests and destabilise neighbouring countries. This strategy, often referred to as Iran’s “proxy warfare,” has allowed Tehran to achieve a level of regional dominance that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. The failure of U.S. policy towards Iran can largely be attributed to a fundamental misunderstanding of the nature of the Iranian regime. Unlike other states that have been successfully contained or deterred by the threat of economic or military consequences, Iran’s leaders are motivated by a radical ideology that views the consolidation of power in the region, especially among Sunni Muslims, as a divine imperative. This opaque political ideology, deeply rooted in Shia Islam, justifies the use of violence and proxy warfare as necessary means to achieve Iran’s strategic goals.

Previously, the West encouraged Iran to counter socialism and Sunni nations, with the U.S. consistently approaching the Iran issue from a standpoint of political interests. However, Washington’s coercive foreign policy is becoming less effective in an increasingly interconnected international system, where economic interests often outweigh political considerations. Iran has concluded that it has more to gain than to lose by pursuing an aggressive policy against Washington and its allies in the region. The number of sanctions against Iran increased from 370 under Barack Obama to more than 1,500 during the Trump administration, making it the most sanctioned country on the planet. The U.S. approach of containment and de-escalation, therefore, seems ill-suited to dealing with a regime fundamentally committed to a revolutionary, rather than a status quo, foreign policy.

The consequences of America’s failed Iran policy are now evident across the Middle East. In Yemen, the Iran-backed Houthi rebels have not only seized large swathes of territory but have also launched attacks on Western-flagged ships in the Red Sea. The Biden administration’s decision to pressure Saudi Arabia into reducing its support for Yemen’s legitimate government has only emboldened the Houthis and, by extension, Iran.

In Iraq, the U.S. has similarly failed to address the growing power of Iranian-backed Shia militias. These groups, once seen as allies in the fight against the Islamic State, have increasingly turned their guns on U.S. forces and assets in the region. This shift underscores the dangers of allowing Iran to cultivate and empower proxy forces that, over time, become powerful enough to challenge U.S. interests directly. The cumulative effect of these failures has been the collapse of American deterrence in the Middle East. The U.S. no longer projects the kind of power necessary to prevent Iran from acting with impunity. This was starkly illustrated in April 2024, when Iran launched one of the largest missile attacks in history against Israel in response to the killing of Iranian officials by Israeli forces. Despite the scale and severity of the attack, Iran faced only marginal consequences, primarily in the form of economic sanctions and diplomatic condemnations. The U.S. response, characterised by restraint and a reluctance to escalate, only reinforced Tehran’s perception that it could act without fear of significant retaliation.

In recent years, Russia and China have significantly expanded their influence in the Middle East, often aligning with Iran to challenge Western dominance in the region. Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, has deepened its ties with Tehran through military, economic, and diplomatic cooperation. This partnership has been most visible in Syria, where Russian military intervention, alongside Iranian forces, has bolstered the Assad regime, ensuring its survival against Western-backed rebels. Russia’s presence in Syria has not only secured its strategic interests, such as maintaining its naval base in Tartus, but has also positioned Moscow as a key power broker in the Middle East. By collaborating with Iran, Russia has effectively countered U.S. influence in the region, supporting a bloc of countries opposed to American policies and contributing to the broader erosion of U.S. authority in the Middle East.

China, on the other hand, has pursued a more economically driven approach, using its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to increase its footprint in the Middle East. Through significant investments in Iranian infrastructure and energy sectors, China has become Iran’s largest trading partner, providing Tehran with much-needed economic lifelines amid U.S. sanctions. Additionally, China’s strategic partnerships with Iran involve security cooperation, including arms sales and technology transfers, further solidifying Iran’s military capabilities. By aligning with Iran, China has not only secured access to vital energy resources but has also positioned itself as a counterbalance to U.S. influence in the region. This Sino-Iranian partnership reflects a broader Chinese strategy of challenging U.S. hegemony globally, with the Middle East serving as a critical arena for this geopolitical contest.

America’s Iran policy over the past decade has been a complete and utter failure. The U.S. has underestimated the threat posed by Iran, overvalued the effectiveness of containment and diplomacy, and failed to project the power necessary to deter Iranian dominance. If the U.S. is to achieve long-term peace and stability in the Middle East, it must first recognise these failures and adopt a more assertive and comprehensive strategy to counter Iran’s ambitions.

M A Hossain
The writer is a political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at writetomahossain@gmail.com