On 18-19 September, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk paid a two-day visit to Islamabad. During his stay, he held meetings with President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, and Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir. Mr Alexei Overchuk was accompanied by a high-level delegation representing several Russian ministries, agencies, state corporations, and major private companies, who held substantive talks with their Pakistani counterparts. According to a spokesperson from Pakistan’s Foreign Office, “Deputy Prime Minister/Foreign Minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar held delegation-level talks with the Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The two sides reviewed the entire spectrum of bilateral cooperation and agreed to pursue robust dialogue and cooperation in areas of trade, industry, energy, connectivity, science, technology, and education. The two sides also agreed to continue coordination on multilateral fora, including at the United Nations and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).” The parties also discussed ways to improve economic ties and bilateral trade, which touched the $1 billion mark in 2023. The visit saw the signing of two Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs): one on Trade, Connectivity and Other Areas of Mutual Cooperation between the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the Russian Federation, and another between the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX) and the Pakistan Mercantile Exchange (PMEX).

More significantly, the Russian deputy prime minister expressed Moscow’s support for Islamabad’s bid to join the BRICS bloc of developing economies, a move likely to have alarmed the United States and its allies, and sent tremors through the ultra-pro-Western political and bureaucratic elite in Pakistan. It goes without saying that the media coverage of the visit was not nearly as lavish as what would be arranged for a minor dignitary from a small Arab island or a third-tier American bureaucrat visiting Pakistan. The reasons for this are too well-known to be stated in a column.

Pakistan’s former Prime Minister, who is currently imprisoned, visited Moscow in February 2022 to meet with President Vladimir Putin when the Russian invasion of Ukraine seemed imminent. Since then, Pakistan has avoided condemning the Russian invasion, though it has expressed its desire for the resolution of the conflict through peace talks. Pakistan correctly applied for membership in the BRICS alliance last year, an organisation that aims to amplify the voice of major emerging economies in counterbalancing the Western-led global order. Founded in 2006, BRICS initially included Brazil, Russia, India, and China, with South Africa joining in 2010. Recently, the bloc expanded to include Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates.

As discussed in numerous previous articles, the re-emergence of Russia and the rise of China as formidable global competitors, particularly through platforms like the SCO, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and BRICS, have provided smaller nations and economies with better prospects for benefiting from the growing range of options – notwithstanding the hindrances posed by internal conflicts and external pressures. In our region, Iran appears to be making significant strides in forming balanced and formidable strategic partnerships with both Russia and China. On 20 September 2024, a proposal from Russia’s Foreign Ministry for signing a strategic partnership agreement with Iran was approved by the Russian President. This development came a day after Russia’s Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu visited Tehran, where he met with senior Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian. Russia and Iran had previously signed a 10-year deal, known as the Treaty on the Basis of Mutual Relations and Principles of Cooperation, in 2001. Upon its expiration, the agreement was extended twice for five-year terms, remaining in effect until 2026. In January 2022, Iran’s late President Ebrahim Raisi visited Moscow and presented Putin with draft documents on strategic cooperation, designed to cement collaboration between the two countries for the next two decades. On 12 September 2024, Putin announced plans to meet and hold talks with Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the upcoming BRICS summit, scheduled to be held in the western Russian city of Kazan next month.

It is worth recalling that Iran and China signed a similar agreement in March 2021. Titled the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement, this deal outlines Sino-Iranian cooperation in political, cultural, security, defence, regional, and international spheres. In a column titled “Puzzling Geopolitics,” I recently opined that the worsening of geopolitical hostility will inevitably lead to a greater polarisation of positions on both the left and the right. Pakistan’s internal, foreign, and economic policies would be best served by carefully balancing these developments in the evolving geopolitical environment. Further confusion or failure to clearly align with formidable economic and security blocs like the SCO and BRICS will undoubtedly come at a heavy cost.

The phrase “once bitten, twice shy” should be deeply ingrained in the minds of Pakistani policymakers as a key historical lesson. The extended strategic arms offered by Russia and China must be grasped, rather than allowing Pakistan to sink further into the quagmire of poor decisions made 77 years ago.

Saleem Qamar Butt
The writer is a retired senior army officer with experience in international relations, military diplomacy and analysis of geo-political and strategic security issues.