Modi's India: Militaristic isolation or diplomatic integration?

The current Indo-Pak showdown needs to be dealt through diplomacy. War is not a viable option and both sides understand the implications of clash. What, then, is the purpose of Modi's recent maneuvers?

The events occurring in the global arena of geo-politics depict rapidly changing scenario, where the axis of power is shifting from West to East. The world, post-Arab Spring, has witnessed the rise of Sino-Russian led EurAsian bloc. Continental Asia is majorly comprised of Far East Asia (Japan, China and Korean Peninsula), South East Asia (ASEAN), Central Asia (CAU), South Asia (SAARC) and West Asia (Middle East/Asia Minor).

The emerging scenario denotes the world system to be defined as ‘multi-polar’. Two Asian countries (China and India) are part of BRICS. The BRICS is considered a response to contemporary American-led international order. We have witnessed Russian iron fist countering American invisible hand in Ukraine, Syria and elsewhere. Meanwhile, as time for election of new American President approaches, the US has pursued diplomatic and military campaigns to activate military flashpoints across Asia, Europe, Latin America and Africa.

America had to face humiliation when Philippines elected Duterte as its President in June, this year. Duterte has followed a line of policy that rejects 'American-sponsored' militarism while announcing support of Sino-Russian efforts for peace, stability and balance in Asia and Europe. The priority of ASEAN is clear as it has held important meetings with Russian and Chinese leadership in the aftermath of Saudi-Iranian spat, when Sheikh Nimr was executed. Chinese leadership visited Saudi, Egypt and Iran. Pakistani leadership visited Saudi and Iran. At that time, the relationships between Turkey and Russia were soured due to single constraint factor: Pro-Israeli NATO’s militarism. The change in these circumstances was a matter of time.

Pro-Israeli NATO wanted to instigate war by forcing Turkey to attack Syria. This would’ve led to nuclear war. Erdogan’s Turkey pulled out of Saudi-Turkish led GCC  onslaught against Syria on the Syrian-Turkish border. Erdogan proceeded to restore diplomatic and military relations with Russia, ceased support of ISIS and announced that Turkey seeks to improve relations with Syria. This proved to be a major dent in NATO’s militarism which had aimed to destabilize Middle East through removal of Bashar Al-Assad.

This Sino-Russian response to take a stand on Syria was different from their response to NATO intervention in Libya. Attack on Syria, Iran or Pakistan would lead to strong provocation for China and Russia and, they will respond to avert further division, destruction and destabilization. This opposition led to emergence of a new bloc i.e. EurAsia. It redefined the contours of emerging, multi-polar world where Asia will play a pivotal role in determining the International order, which will carve new alliances for diplomatic and military campaigns. Russia intervened in Syria to stop NATO in its tracks. China rolled out OBOR initiative. It was Kayani doctrine which made it possible. In 2009-10, anti-terror ops were launched in Pakistan, during the rule of a civilian government.  Furthermore, Kayani allowed America to exhaust leverage options in the region. By the time America realized the mistake, Putin utilised the opportunity by exploiting the NATO dependence on alternate routes. Obama admin did not want Putin to benefit and hence, ceased to pressurize Pakistan and directed attention towards Middle East. It was until the drone strike on Mullah Fazlullah that America decided to activate the military flashpoint in South Asia – ahead of American Presidential Elections 2016.

Kayani doctrine proved effective in long-term as Sino-Russian led bloc of EurAsian countries came together to form a single platform in order to respond to Pro-Israeli NATO’s militarism. Pakistan brokered the rapprochement deal between Russia and Turkey; which Israel despised. Meanwhile, Obama visited Japan and Vietnam. Modi also visited USA.  ASEAN had witnessed impact of Russian iron fist as it countered American Invisible hand in Syria. Here by, they decided to diversify foreign policy by forging positive relations with Russia in order to counter Chinese presence and American pressure. How will then ASEAN accept Indian aggression with the risk of nuclear war in Asia? Japan’s Abe met Russia’s Putin on sidelines of ASEAN summit in Sochi (Russia), this year. Leaders across EurAsia seek a non-militaristic approach to world affairs.

As situation in Kashmir deteriorates, Pakistani leadership has decided to challenge and expose the militaristic status quo of Indian establishment, which is imposed in Kashmir. Indian establishment is comprised of Indian Army, Media and Corporatocracy. Ahead of UN's 71st General Assembly summit, the Uri episode occurred, which led to hostile Indian response. This strong response is in reality a signal to  Russia and China. Pro-Israeli NATO wants India to be its police-state in Asia. India ‘used’ the Uri attack to forward its case where she wants to eclipse the emerging importance of Pakistan in Sino-Russian led EurAsian camp in order to, specifically, establish her pivotal role in International affairs as a South Asian country.

The line of policy adopted by Modi suggests a link to interplay of engineered mechanisms related to episode of Russian-Turkish hostility. The aftermath of Uri episode is close (strike similarity) to what happened after downing of Russian fighter jet. Shortly after the incident, Erdogan discontinued NATO aims of destabilizing Syria before even implementing the next phase i.e. proceed to attack Syria. Is Modi following the same line which Erdogan adhered to? It is a plausible scenario which can be  used to demonstrate that whatever options are available, waging war is not the answer. The reason behind this statement is the occurrence of Russian-Turkish rapprochement in urgency despite the level of hostility. Erdogan and Putin met in June, this year. The repetition of this Caucasian episode in Indo-Pak region holds substance. Soviet Union was the Godfather of India. It is Christian Russia that has emerged as legitimate opposing force to godless forces of ‘atheistic materialism’ and ‘territorial expansionism’, which function as 'tool' elements for pro-Israeli NATO militarism. Turning away from Russia (ex-Soviet Union), India has started to induct Israeli doctrines and weapons into its military.

The ’alleged’ surgical strikes are inspired from NBT missions of Israeli Special forces. Israel also supplies pellet guns to India, which are used in Kashmir. There sees to be an unbreakable bond between the strategic interests of India and Israel. Indian policy of hostility and methods of aggression are no different from Israeli tool of oppression. Why is India bent upon pursuing the path leading to wrong side of history? EurAsia seeks to stand against Pro-Israeli NATO which seeks to 'rule' the world. Russia and China do not want to rule the world. Why is India facilitating Israel in its attempt to impose Global Military dictatorship but depicts itself as largest democracy in the world?

Russia has shifted its policy in opposition to oppressor who is bent upon waging war through pro-Israeli NATO’s militarism. Turkey followed suit. This is evident in the brilliant diplomatic endeavour to hold joint war games with Pakistan and India- simultaneously – after the success of Syrian ceasefire plan. As India ‘desires’ to show its importance and caliber, such EurAsian policy will provide window of opportunity to Modi-led India to reconsider options and in due process, reject militarism of pro-Israeli NATO. This act will enhance its status as largest democracy  in the world – not as the largest oppressor. Asian countries need to realise that the oppressor (which wants to rule the world) will stop at nothing to impose global military dictatorship despite the possibility of total annihilation of various regions. Cease its role in serving militaristic status quo of global establishment i.e. pro-Israeli NATO militarism, and India can proceed to retain its status as world's largest democracy.

Pakistan brokered Russian-Turkish rapprochement deal. Russia had intervened in Syria to counter war-madness. China, initially and originally, planned to provide assistance to Iraq. However, China proceeded to provide assistance to Syria instead of Iraq. Pakistani Defense Minister, Kh Asif, announced assistance to Iraq. The reason behind secret Sino-Russian presence in Iraq is to avert Saudi-Iranian direct confrontation. Plans are underway to neutralise Egypt’s new role of NATO’s front firepower in case of ISIS false flags blamed on Iranian assets (Hezbollah) as Sino-Russian led EurAsian bloc is integrating regional interests into respective national interests - irrespective of avenues. In September 2015, Russia intervened in Syria. In September 2016, Russia can intervene in Indo-Pak region. Both interventions can  prove to be effective against Pro-Israeli NATO’s militarism. The Iraq factor mentioned above magnifies Sino-Russian led EurAsian plans to counter unjust Israeli-facilitated war on Iran. Russia annexed Crimea in order to facilitate anti-NATO progress in Mediterranean and Black Sea. This provides link to Istanbul (Turkey) from where direct naval and nuclear attack can be launched on Tel Aviv, Israel. Hence, annexation of Crimea is a massive dent in Pro-Israeli NATO's interest.

The current Indo-Pak showdown needs to be dealt through diplomacy. War is not a viable option and both sides understand the implications of clash. What, then, is the purpose of Modi's recent maneuvers? The Indian establishment seeks to enhance India’s status in the global arena of geo-politics and intends to be the major player in South Asia and in broader sense, be the representative of Asia - simultaneously, facilitating the oppressor to become ruling state of the world. The isolation policy as part of SAARC summit is part of it. The Indian aggression on fronts ranging from surgical strikes to blockading water to sanctions or any other hostile action; is part of an agenda to propagate the aims, goals and objectives of the 'militaristic status quo', which is sponsored by Indian establishment.  There was a time when PM Nawaz Sharif had to defy militarism which was endorsed through militaristic status quo of Pakistani establishment. It is time Modi realizes the hollowness of ill-planned Indian diplomatic and military onslaught. India can gain through 'resurgence and convergence' under Asian deterrence diplomacy or it will suffer from pro-Israeli NATO’s militarism. India will have to respond to demands of Justice in Kashmir valley as Modi will have to proceed Indian diplomacy towards non-militarism once Indian 'nationlist-inspired, democratic and military supremacy' is established - somehow.

Observing the minute details, the Modi-led India has 'carried out surgical strikes in Pakistan', scrapped SAARC, MFN is under review, squeezed Indus Water Treaty, granted free-hand to Indian military in Kashmir, assessing situation to revoke aviation and other deals with Pakistan. This is precisely what happened during the Russian-Turkish episode of hostility. Situation changed when Erdogan realized the weakness of establishment to resolve conflict. America has passed anti-Saudi bill and anti-Iranian resolution along with Senator Kerry's announcement to end US part in Syrian ceasefire plan, which suggests that 'Militariatic Status Quo' of Global Establishment is what Indian Establishment (Army, Media and Corporatocracy) is what endorsing through hostile action in pursuit of post-uri attack situation. It reveals 'Militaristic Status Quo' of indian establishment, which is imposed in Kashmir.

There are number of options to begin with the element of ‘reduced-hostility’ and ‘restoration of normal relations’. Give Kashmir a legitimate status where citizens can travel to and from both parts of Kashmir for purpose of tourism, education and employment. De-militarise conflict zone. Allow Kashmiris to print passport along with other documents and mint currency. These ideas are not far-fetched if both countries put their best people and brilliant minds to work on all possible ways to generate ways for integration in order to avert Indo-Pak hostility. Combined opposition must be shown by India and Pakistan as part of democratic and moral struggle against Global dictatorship and oppression of country which seeks to become 'ruling state of world' i.e. Israel. India cannot risk isolation in EurAsia and, in order to integrate, will have to muster enough strength, fortitude and integrity (all on moral grounds) to reject pro-Israeli militarism, which can be done by refusing to become part of war-madness i.e.,  adjusting the militaristic status quo of Indian establishment to the rule: ‘Moral Law is the Highest Law’, which the Sino-Russian led EurAsian bloc is pursuing. India has all to gain from Asian Union. Otherwise, India will have to face isolation. Can we envisage a world where  Pakistan and EurAsia will stand with India and vice versa? Nothing is impossible in the realm of nature once the power of truth is established and  Indian subcontinent decides to be on the right side of history.

Is the 'largest democracy' i.e. India is ready to join Sino-Russian led EurAsian alliance which upholds the slogan: 'Moral Law is the Highest Law', or is it willing to be on the wrong side of history by following 'oppressive militarism' of Global dictatorship i.e. Israel?

Waqas Mahmood Ali is an International Strategy Analyst and Political commentator. Waqas is a former member of staff at 'The Nation' newspaper. He is 'Phd Candidate' at Strategic Studies Department at Air University. He is associated with Newspapers, Radio and, Policy, Political and Media think tanks. He can be reached on twitter at @WaqasMahmoodAli

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