After a recent rocket attack on a soccer field in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, the question of whether the Middle East is on the verge of an all-out war has captured global attention. This attack, which resulted in the death of 12 people amid the ongoing Gaza conflict, has escalated tensions to a critical level. In response, Israeli forces carried out a drone strike in southern Lebanon, resulting in casualties. This attack was directly attributed to Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese armed group. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who was in the United States at the time, swiftly returned to Israel and, after a meeting with the security cabinet, declared, “Hezbollah will have to pay a heavy price for this attack—a price they have never had to pay before.”
This incident brings to mind a provocative international media headline from the previous month: “Now is the time to bomb Lebanon.” The possibility of an all-out war between Israel and Lebanon has since been a hot topic in various media outlets. The world anxiously watches to see if another major conflict is about to erupt in this already volatile region.
It is often said that when the world order and the power of global authorities are in decline, the drums of war begin to sound. This observation seems increasingly accurate. Over recent decades, we have seen sporadic conflicts erupt in various regions. However, the ongoing Ukraine war, which began in 2022, and the Gaza war that started on October 7 of last year, have collectively pushed the world closer to a significant global conflict. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza have starkly exposed the West’s double standards and the underlying political maneuvers it employs to maintain its status as the world’s policing authority.
These two wars have caused many other parts of the world to edge towards war or conflict. The current situation is arguably the most fragile the world has experienced since the end of the Cold War. Although tensions between Eastern and Western bloc powers are at an all-time high, the catastrophic specter of another world war has not yet materialized. Nevertheless, the fear remains.
The Middle East, in particular, has a long history of conflicts that are difficult to extinguish once ignited. This is a major cause for concern. As regional powers continually face off, there is no assurance that these conflicts will remain contained. Instead, in my opinion, if Donald Trump were to become the President of the USA, his ultra pro-Israel stance might usher in a new era where Middle Eastern conflicts could erupt unpredictably and escalate rapidly.
Examining the global situation over the past two decades reveals that countless lives have been lost in numerous bloody conflicts. Wars continue to rage in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Sudan. Moreover, the dire prospect of ‘geopolitical and technological changes’ exacerbating superpower conflicts looms large. Modern warfare has evolved beyond traditional battles; today, conflicts are fueled by advanced technologies such as drones, robots, and private military contractors. These developments have made urban areas the primary battlegrounds, as seen in Aleppo, Syria, and Mosul, Iraq. This new form of ‘hybrid warfare’ blurs the lines between combatants and civilians, making conflicts more devastating and harder to resolve.
Historically, the world has rarely been without war and conflict. However, recent wars seem particularly interminable. These prolonged conflicts are especially detrimental to the developing world, which is disproportionately affected. The current global environment is often described as Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous. This turmoiled world is becoming increasingly challenging for developing countries, which find themselves embroiled in conflicts not of their making. These nations are struggling to navigate through an unpredictable landscape where the pathway to peace and stability remains unclear.
The dynamics of superpower involvement in regional conflicts further complicate the situation. The United States, Russia, and China are often seen as key players in many of these conflicts, providing military aid, political support, or even direct intervention. For instance, the U.S. has a longstanding alliance with Israel, while Russia and Iran have been key supporters of the Syrian government and Hezbollah. China’s growing influence in the Middle East adds another layer of complexity, particularly through its Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to enhance regional connectivity and trade.
These superpowers are driven by strategic interests that often clash with each other, creating a precarious balance of power. The involvement of these external actors can both escalate and mitigate conflicts, depending on their actions and diplomatic engagements. This geopolitical chess game makes the prediction of future conflicts even more challenging, as alliances and enmities can shift rapidly.
The human cost of these conflicts is staggering. The wars in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq have resulted in millions of deaths and displacements, creating one of the worst refugee crises in modern history. In Gaza, the humanitarian situation is dire with civilians especially, the women and children bearing the brunt of the ongoing violence. The international community has often been criticized for its inadequate response to these crises, struggling to provide effective humanitarian aid and failing to broker lasting peace agreements.
The stakes have never been higher. The potential for conflict in the Middle East serves as a microcosm of global instability. Preventing a descent into widespread warfare requires concerted efforts from all stakeholders—nations, international organizations, and civil society. Through dialogue, diplomacy, and a commitment to humanitarian principles, the world can strive to avert the catastrophe of another global conflict and work towards a more peaceful future.
M A Hossain
The writer is a political and defense analyst based in Bangladesh. He can be reached at writetomahossain@gmail.com
