ISLAMABAD - While the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf has been pushing hard for early elections, the rumour mills are indicating another scenario – a possibility of delayed polls.
There has been no official word on it but there are hints the government members are deliberately leaking rumours to check the nation’s pulse on the option of polls beyond 2023.
This idea may be designed to tempt the PTI to ‘choose the lesser evil’ and agree for the elections around the last quarter of the year.
As a priority, the government wants to drag the elections in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa for the provincial assemblies to the end of the National Assembly’s five-year term, which will mean general elections sometime in October.
PTI chief Imran Khan is demanding fresh polls to steer Pakistan out of a protracted political crisis. But holding general elections is a costly affair, and the South Asian country’s coffers are empty.
Imran Khan’s supporters believe that it is the only way to drag the country out of the acute political and economic crises. They argue a fresh mandate for a political party, or a coalition, will do the country good.
Holding elections is not easy. The incumbent Pakistan Democratic Movement-led government, headed by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, is reluctant to accept Khan’s demand, possibly fearing that the former premier could return to power.
Khan was ousted from office last year by a no-confidence vote in parliament. He accused the establishment and the US of orchestrating his ouster without any real evidence.
In his campaign to force early elections, Imran Khan dissolved the PTI-led Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assemblies but the elections in these two provinces too are a far cry.
Pakistan is also facing a crippling economic crisis, with the government struggling to secure a loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The economic chaos, soaring inflation, and an acute shortage of gas and electricity in the country, has dented the popularity of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s government.
Fawad Chaudhry, a PTI leader, recently said the government was making excuses to delay the general election to avoid defeat.
Economic crisis is not the only obstacle to holding general elections; the security situation has also worsened in the past few weeks.
Yesterday, a petition was filed in the Supreme Court to hold elections in the national and provincial assemblies on the same date. A citizen, Malik Faisal Mahmood moved the apex court through his counsel.
The petitioner maintained that holding elections on different dates will have additional financial effects, and could become a risky affair without the presence of security forces.
A day earlier, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) notified October 8 as the date for elections in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Last week the ECP had delayed the elections in Punjab until October 8, suggesting that transparent and peaceful polls on the scheduled date of April 30 were not possible.
Also yesterday, the Senate passed the Supreme Court (Practice and Procedure) Bill 2023 amid protest by the PTI. Previously, the National Assembly (NA) had passed the Supreme Court (Practice and Procedure) Bill 2023 after a few amendments.
The Bill aims to reduce the powers of the chief justice of Pakistan over suo motu jurisdiction. Observers believe this Bill could be helpful if the general elections are delayed beyond 2023 on any pretext.
Officially, the government claims it will hold the elections in October. Federal Minister Ahsan Iqbal said that the next general election will take place in October after the completion of a population census, urging Imran Khan to wait.
Pakistan carried out its last census in 2017 after a gap of about 20 years, whose results were immediately disputed as various political factions claimed the population data in some regions had been deliberately fudged by authorities to meet their political objectives.
“A new general election will be held in October 2023 based on the results of the digital census,” Federal Minister Ahsan Iqbal said at the launch of a training programme for census staff in Islamabad this week. He elaborated: “The results of the census will come in April and the Election Commission will then delimit the constituencies.”
The challenge for Imran Khan now will be to keep the pressure on the government for early elections but keep an eye on the rulers to stop them from pushing the polls beyond 2023.
There are rumours that some government members are preparing grounds to delay the polls for a couple of years to ‘improve’ the economy and ‘stabilise’ the law and order situation.
The campaign for elections in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa within the 90 days of the dissolution of the assemblies may soon turn into holding the elections on time for the provincial and the national assemblies. If by any means, the general elections are delayed, PTI will be the main loser.
The unofficial threat of delayed elections may soften the PTI’s inflexibility. In the end, the choice for PTI might be simple - elections at the end of the NA term or no elections at all