Low voter turnout, an expected 2nd runner-up mark NA-120 by-polls

An unlikely 2nd runner-up emerges

Thousands on Sunday lined outside polling stations to determine the winner of NA-120, the constituency of ousted prime minister Nawaz Sharif, which lies in the heartland of Punjab, Lahore.

Historically, the constituency had been the stronghold of Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). The party had won the National Assembly seats from this constituency (the then NA-86) in 1972 and 1977.

The constituency was redrawn as NA-95 in 1988 and as NA-120 in 2002 and has since 1985 been the stronghold of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).

(Image Courtesy of Center for Investigative Reporting in Pakistan)

NA-120 (Lahore-III) covers areas ranging from Mozang to Malianwala. The voter class comprises mostly of proletariat with 56 per cent being male voters and 44 per cent female voters, according to the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP).

(Image Courtesy of CIRP)

(Image Courtesy of Free and Fair Election Network - Note: The figures have been revised)

The constituency as of today boasts almost 321,000 registered voters after ECP added 24,000 voters to the existing 297,000.

“The number of registered voters went up by over 15% between 2002 and 2008, increasing from 232,800 to 268,552. The number increased another 10% between 2008 and 2013, going up to 295,826 registered voters.” (Source FAFEN)

Traditionally, voter turnout has been low. This year only 100,158 people exercised their voting rights.

"The turnout increased from 31.3% in 2002 to 36.3% in 2008. The turnout increased significantly between 2008 and 2013, up by 15.6% from 36.3% in 2008 to 51.9% in 2013." (Source FAFEN)

(Image Courtesy of FAFEN)

A total of 44 candidates are contesting today's elections. According to local media reports, 32 of the 44 are independent candidates while the remaining 12 are contesting on party tickets. Following are the key candidates:

Kulsoom Nawaz

The wife of Nawaz Sharif, Kulsoom Nawaz has never run for office. Her selection as the PML-N candidate garnered controversy and several pleas were filed in the Lahore High Court against candidature before they were eventually dismissed. She was ruled out of the campaign process owing to lymphoma.

Yasmin Rashid

A former lecturer at King Edward Medical College, Dr Yasmin Rashid of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) bagged almost 53,000 votes in the 2013 elections, coming second to Nawaz Sharif, who took the lead with a whopping 92,000 votes. She carried out an aggressive door-to-door campaign.

Faisal Mir

The Pakistan People's Party (PPP) candidate made headlines during the election campaign when he had a team of paramedics collect blood samples of voters and promised them medical treatment in future.

(Image Courtesy of FAFEN)

Till the filing of this report, Kulsoom Nawaz of PML-N had secured 59,413 votes while PTI's Yasmin Rashid got 46,145. Interestingly, PPP, which once used to be a dominant party in this constituency, only managed to secure 2,245 votes. Sheikh Yaqoob, an independent candidate backed by a newly-emerged Milli Muslim League which was formed just about a month ago, bagged 4,349 votes.

(Sheikh Yaqoob)

The writer is a real estate analyst at Zameen.com

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